Week 4 NFL Picks

Like I said, Mr. Hester has his mojo back.

Time to get serious. Doubling down.

Who brought bail money?

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Early Games

Detroit at Green Bay (-14.5)

The Pack committed a franchise-record 18 penalties last week; special teams fell on its face; and coach barfed up a crucial timeout by challenging a no-brain call in a tie game with two minutes left. If Randy Shannon cedes the reigns back to Mike McCarthy, I think Green Bay rights the ship. Lotta points, but the Lions have managed 2 of 38 and, boy, do I love when Aaron Rodgers does that WWF title belt move. Be careful, Brett. My bromance is wishy-washy.

Pick: Green Bay

Via Judasfavre.com. Seriously.

Denver at Tennessee (-6.5)

Denver’s secondary is more like a bowl of Cheerios than an actual pass defense. Ton of holes. On the other hand, their not-as-bad-as-you-think front seven held the Colts admittedly mediocre ground game to 40 yards last week. So let’s say DJ Williams and Chris Johnson cancel each other out (go with me). This means we’re left with an epic showdown between Air Vince and cheesecloth. Can you say “Disney movie”?

Pick: Denver

Cincinnati (-3) at Cleveland

According to SC correspondent Bill Simmons, Carson Palmer’s thrown 8 dropped INTs in the first three weeks. Simmons’ correspondent Mike Lombardi adds to this that Palmer’s like a former flamethrower who can’t hit 80 on the gun. Now consider that Cleveland’s finally got a healthy Jake Delhomme back…

A healthy Jake Delhomme.

Back.

Pick: Cincinnati

Carolina at New Orleans (-14.5)

The “Real World” finally packed it in, which means New Orleans doesn’t have to deal with a bunch of rowdy college students tearing up their city on MTV’s dime. Just hurricanes and oil spills. Speaking of Hurricanes and unmitigated disasters – Jon Vilma, meet Jimmy Clausen.

Pick: New Orleans

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-1)

Easily the week’s best matchup… Would you believe me if I told you Pittsburgh could take a two-game lead in the division over the consensus preseason champs with Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch at the helm? And after four weeks? Look, you know how I feel about the ‘Cane-led Ravens, but I feel just as strongly about Mike “Badmother-WATCH ‘YO MOUTH” Tomlin – the no-brainer pick for early-season coach of the year.

That said, this post just wouldn’t be the same without some gratuitous Ray Ray.

Pick:

New York (-5.5) at Buffalo

Another week of ego-boosting for The Sanchize, who’s rocking a 104 passer rating and gets a virtual bye week against the 11 crash-test dummies known to most as “Buffalo’s Defense.” Cover your eyes if your squeamish.

Pick: New York

San Francisco at Atlanta (-7)

My family’s lived in both these cities and I can tell you with a straight face that I like Atlanta better in every conceivable facet. Doesn’t drop into the 40s in June. Doesn’t entertain acid experiments. Doesn’t have Mike Singletary. The Niners have burned me three weeks in a row. I sincerely hate them with every fiber of my being.

Except for Frank Gore.

Atlanta rolls in this one on the same day my Bravos celebrate their first preseason appearance since I stopped caring about baseball. Asks Mike Wilbon on Thursday’s PTI, “Bobby Cox for the Hall of Fame, right?”

You’re on it, Mike.

Pick: Atlanta

Seattle (-1) at St. Louis

On a random aside, let’s not confuse “sports reporter hot” for “actually hot” when it comes to Gainesville’s Own Jenn Brown. Look, I appreciate an attractive blonde as much as the next guy… provided the next guy’s Fareed Zakaria. Let’s just put it this way, if JB hit up The Swamp tonight, she’d be the fourth or fifth best looking woman at her own table. Segue way. When I look at the ‘Hawks, I think “Jenn Brown hot.” But you know what? Jenn’s on ESPN, not Univision. And Seattle’s in the NFC West, not the SEC. Fighting Rancourts move closer to Lucky No. 7.

Pick: Seattle

Late Games

Indianapolis (-7.5) at Jacksonville

This one’s at EverBank Field, which means Peyton’s FINALLY gonna get some peace and quiet on the Sabbath. Lemme ask you: has a professional football team ever given away 20,000 free tickets? And if so, did those go unclaimed because real people have no interest in spending four hours with David Garrard? I see a day in the not-so-distant future when Becks, Jagger and Prince Henry are spotted in a swanky press box on Jags’ Opening Day… and it’s not because these guys are movin to Jacksonville.

Pick: Indianapolis

Houston (-3) at Oakland

Oakland’s too close in proximity to San Francisco for me to like/respect/ever want to spend more than 2 weeks there, but at least it has a coach who’s only embarrassing himself when he’s beating up team employees. Needless to say, I really like what Tom Cable’s doing with Darren “See, I’m Not a Bust” McFadden, who’s averaging 115 yards and – more importantly – 24 carries a game. Problem is, Houston’s offense will take D-Mac out of the game by halftime, despite a one-legged Dre Johnson.

Your move, Bruce Gradkowski.

Pick: Houston

Arizona at San Diego (-8)

If San Diego loses two straight to non-BCS teams, maybe it’s time to start entertaining the idea that they’re just not good. It’s easy to pin this on another traditionally slow start, but people seem to gloss over the fact that the team’s not nearly as talented as it was just a few short years ago. Hell, I wince just thinking about Shawne Merriman. Good thing for San Diego that Arizona has the exact same problems, only more acute. I can’t bear the thought of Phil Rivers going “all Leaf” on some hapless local sportswriter.

Pick: San Diego

Washington at Philadelphia (-6)

Bryan Holt spent the entirety of his 8th grade year arguing McNabb over Vick. I think he was right then. I don’t think he’s right now.

Pick: Philadelphia

Sunday Night Game

Chicago at New York (-4)

What am I missing? This one’s for Robb Hilson:

As I quite prophetically stated last week, The Alien is back.

Pick: Chicago

Monday

New England (-1) at Miami

Humor me for a second. Miami’s new favorite son LeBron James goes on “Larry King Live” this week to discuss the upcoming season and the lingering fallout from his hometown departure. Not-black reporter Soledad O’Brien of “CNN Special: Black in America” fame asks 100 percent preemptively, “Do you think race played a part in this?” To which LeBron responds:

“Yeah, I think so at times. There’s always a race factor.”

This is how ESPN reported it:

HURLBURT FIELD, Fla. – LeBron James and his manager say they believe race played a factor in how the two-time reigning NBA MVP’s decision to join the Miami Heat was covered this summer.

Ten days ago, fellow angry black man Randy Moss made the most spectacular catch I’ve ever seen. I like the Pats.

Pick: New England

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Last week: Let’s not talk about it.

Season: 18-28-2

- Robbie