Week 3 NFL Picks

Mr. Hester has his mojo back.

Possibly written from my place of work, AKA the craps tables.

I honestly thought about quitting after last week’s debacle, but as any gambling sage will tell you, the only way to dig your way out of a hole is with a bigger shovel.

Let me ask you something – is it possible to take out a line of credit on a busted iPod?

Early Games

Cincinnati (-3) at Carolina

The Panthers are coming off back-to-back 13-point losses, the second of which served up an enormous plate of crow to yours truly. My sincerest apologies, Bucs fans. Here’s hoping your fall back to Earth is a gentle one… Moving right along, I kind of like Cinci even though they’re saddled with the most overrated quarterback in the league. Carolina needs this one. Doesn’t matter.

Pick: Cincinatti

San Francisco (-2.5) at Kansas City

Talk about a monumental teasejob. Wasn’t enough for the Niners to lose last week – they had to drive the length of the field with two minutes left, squeak in a replay-reviewed 2-pt conversion for the tie/cover… AND THEN LOSE IN OVERTIME. Excuse my French, but I f***ing hate this team. That said, you’ll hear a lot of week-three  “must win game”s from a bunch of people who don’t realize the winner of this division is winning 7 games. I think San Francisco prevails despite Mike Singletary’s best efforts, if only because Matt Cassel’s a bigger waste of money than the John Edward’s paperback, “Lessons in Fidelity.”

Pick: San Francisco

Detroit at Minnesota (-11)

I’m sorry, is Minnesota good? Is Minnesota [insert anything except "sucking horribly"]? No, they’re not… It honestly burned the nerve endings off my frontal lobe to watch Singletary, Wade Phillips AND Brad Childress coach professional football games on Sunday. Singletary, for his part, outdid himself by stripping down to nothing at all at halftime calling timeout  down by 5 right after the two minute warning, in a move (until now) known exclusively as “The Randy Shannon Special.” Phillips, on the other hand, was just being Phillips (read: taking cues from Jason Garrett/Jerry Jones), and Childress…

CHIL-DRESSSSSSSSSSS!

(*camera pans out to roof… then clouds…. then space… than Jupiter*)

Run the freaking football.

Pick: Detroit

Dallas at Houston (-3)

Would 0-3 heading into the bye light The Unforgettable Fire under Wade’s ass or will it just get him fired. I think we’re about to find out.

Pick:

Atlanta at New Orleans (-4)

Matty Ice has heard my cries, transforming before my very eyes into the QB he’s always promised, while friend and confidant Joe Flacco turned from a pumpkin to the cack you find inside a pumpkin. The Saints, on the other hand, have edged out two wins against a pair of winless teams. Kind of like the Saints in this one, but by no more than a “sh*t, it was tipped!” field goal… You’re one lucky SOB, Garrett Hartley.

Pick: New Orleans

Pittsburgh (-2.5) at Tampa Bay

Reality bites (when you lose to Charlie Batch at home). I leave you now with the words of Robbie Hilson written 5 paragraphs ago:

Here’s hoping your fall back to Earth is a gentle one.

Pick: Pittsburgh

Cleveland at Baltimore (-10.5)

Baltimore’s D hasn’t given up a touchdown. I think the O needs to score 11 points to cover… This is the week Flacco goes into Eff You mode and proves to me he’s not the proverbial turd in the punchbowl, you know, lest Ray Ray confront him during a Super Bowl party… And end up on the cover of Madden four years later.

Haha. Little Murder Suspect joke for ya!

Pick:

Tennessee at New York (-3)

I guess Jeff Fisher’s philosophy against Pittsburgh last week was, “Let me use the best running back in the league as a decoy in an 8-point game so I can set up the play action for Air Vince.” Sometimes I really do think it’s as simple as RUN THE FOOTBALL, especially when you have a home-run hitter who can change the game in a play even if he’s been held to 16 carries, 34 yards… I don’t know what to make of the other team. They drilled a really crappy team in week one, then turned around and got drilled by a really good team in week two. I say stay away – the only way you lose this one is if Brandon Jacobs clobbers you with his helmet.

Pick: Tennessee

Buffalo at New England (-14.5)

And we close out the early games with a bang! I mean the sound of bookies slamming the door on my arm, not the football game. Turns out commenter Joe Blow (real name) was exactly right when he wrote:

Dude, really? Did you wonder why you were 8-8 in your picks last week? It’s because you dont know what youre doing. The bills wont put up more than 10 points against the packers.

As President Bush once said, “Fool me once – shame on… Fool me, can’t get fooled again.” Other words to live by: “Don’t bet against Tom Brady after a humiliating loss, especially when people are giving him sh*t about his hair.”

"The Follicle Son"

Pick: New England

Late Games

Philadelphia (-3) at Jacksonville

For all the flack I give arch-nemesis Andy Reid, I admire him to no end for making the right decision after seemingly backing himself into a corner (you know, as much as he can back himself into confined spaces). Good football coaches – and good leaders in general – have the wherewithal to make changes on the fly even when that decision goes against convention. Prevailing wisdom, for instance, dictates that you don’t trade your star quarterback to make room for an unproven kid with a bad ‘stache who played his college ball in Houston’s sling-’n-wing and a once-jailed backup who’s only under contract for another year…

(*wheels start turning*)

Wait a second…

For your sake, Andy, I hope Michael Vick is still as good as you think he is.

Pick: Jacksonville

Washington (-3.5) at St. Louis

The Rams have lost 27 of 28, and Mike Shanahan spent all week tearing his team a new one for that choke job they pulled against Houston… ‘Skins fans tease themselves into being good for one last week.

Pick: Washington

San Diego (-4.5) at Seattle

Raise your hand if you spent a first-round fantasy pick on San Diego’s rookie back Ryan Mathews. Now raise it if you sleep with a voodoo doll in the likeness of fullback Mike Tolbert under your pillow… That’s what I thought. Norv Turner said this week that he’s still riding running-back-by-committee after realizing that Tolbert is like cowbell. More please…. Guy’s a bowling ball of a human in the Natrone Means mold who gives the Super Chargers what they haven’t had since Lorenzo Neal left – a power running game… On the other side, you have proof that no amount of coaching can make up for lack of talent. It’s a good thing for Matt Hasselbeck that he has a seat on The View waiting for him.

Pick: San Diego

Oakland at Arizona (-4.5)

(*sprints toward bathroom*)

Watching Jason Campbell and Derek Anderson last week made me think that I could play quarterback in the NFL. Bruce Gradkowski gets the nod Sunday for Oakland… which does absolutely nothing to change my perception. Still, I like THE RAIDAHS, provided their coach doesn’t try to strangle Darrius Heyward Bay with his headset cord. My question: where’s CableVision when you need it?

Pick: Oakland

Indianapolis (-5.5) at Denver

Better odds: Tebow starting by the end of the season or Roger Goodell renaming the MVP trophy “Peyton” after week 10. Kinda leaning toward the latter. I mean, at some point, people have to come around on the merits of Kyle Orton: Great facial hair potential/20-5 career home record. Colts by a field goal.

Pick: Denver

Sunday Night

New York (-2) at Miami

A rivalry that finally has some juice again. Living in Miami, I can tell you that ‘Fins fans genuinely hate Jets fans, which is a little ironic considering most Miamians are Jewish dudes from Manhattan. I’m 2-o riding my hometown team. Gonna dance with the girl that brung me, even if she looks like Tony Sparano.

Pick: Miami

Monday

Green Bay (-3) at Chicago

Apparently Lovie is a Casualtist. No big deal.

The Alien is back.

Pick: Chicago

__________

Last Week: 5-10-1

Season: 13-17-2

__________

Suck it up. Recession ended 15 months ago.

- Robbie